A difficult moment in the world

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This is an update, following on from our recent post about the US and Israeli invasion of Iran. If you missed it, you can read it here.

As human beings, our first reaction is exactly that, human. These events are distressing, and the human cost of conflict should never be overlooked.

But as your financial planner, I have to look beyond that. My responsibility is to help you understand what events like this may mean for your long‑term financial plan and importantly, what you should and shouldn’t do in times of global uncertainty.

This isn’t about predicting geopolitics or second‑guessing military strategy. It’s about keeping perspective, staying disciplined, and ensuring your plan continues to serve you well.

Some of the following will be obvious to the experienced investor, but I hope I have written it so you all can follow.

Why the Middle East Matters to the Global Economy

1. Energy Supply

The Middle East remains central to global energy production, with the Strait of Hormuz alone accounting for roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil flow.

When tensions threaten these supply routes, energy prices can rise quickly and when energy rises, it flows through into almost everything else: transportation, manufacturing, heating, and ultimately the cost of living.

2. Food and Agriculture

It’s not widely appreciated how closely linked food production is to energy prices.

Natural gas is a major input in fertiliser production. When energy becomes more expensive, farming becomes more expensive, which eventually pushes food prices higher across the globe.

3. Inflation Risks

When both energy and food prices rise at the same time, inflation becomes the natural consequence. Central banks, in turn, may keep interest rates higher for longer, delaying cuts and maintaining higher borrowing costs.

Higher interest rates mean we spend more on borrowing and if we have savings, we often retain more on deposit, both of these mean we have less to spend on the high street which doesn’t add to inflation increases thus allowing inflation to soften.

You’ll have seen the weekend’s headlines about the U.S.–Israel attacks on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory strikes. This note below focuses on the financial implications and how we expect things may play out.

Inflation chart over the last 50 years

Oil Prices over the last 70 years vs MSCI World Index

How Markets Typically React

Periods of geopolitical tension often trigger short‑term volatility.

Equity markets may fall as uncertainty rises
Energy prices may spike
Bond markets may shift as inflation expectations adjust

But history is clear: global markets are remarkably resilient.

Over many decades we’ve seen:

wars
oil shocks
financial crises
political upheaval
pandemics

And through it all, markets have ultimately advanced.

Why? Because markets reflect something deep and powerful: human progress, innovation and productivity, not the headlines of the day.

Why Diversification Matters

Diversification is one of the most powerful tools available to any investor and it’s at the core of how we manage portfolios.

Your portfolio at Lexington is globally diversified across:

thousands of companies
hundreds of bonds
multiple sectors
and many different regions of the world

This means you’re never reliant on the fortunes of a single country or industry.

When some areas struggle, others often support the portfolio.

Examples:

Higher oil prices can benefit energy producers
Inflation may benefit businesses with strong pricing power
Different economies move through different cycles at different times

This is precisely why diversification smooths the journey.

This is what investing as per Market Cap looks like:

Market Volatility Is Normal

One of the biggest surprises for many investors is how frequently markets fall, even in very strong long‑term uptrends.

Historically:

15% declines occur almost annually
20% declines every 4–6 years
30%+ declines roughly once a decade

Volatility isn’t a sign that something is broken.

It’s simply the price of admission for the long‑term returns that equities provide.

The Real Risk: Investor Behaviour

In my experience, the biggest danger to long‑term wealth isn’t geopolitics, it’s how we respond to it.

When headlines are frightening, it’s natural to feel the urge to act.

But reactive decisions often cause far more harm than the event itself.

Selling after markets fall
Shifting heavily into bonds out of fear
Chasing commodities or gold because they’re in the news

These are classic emotional reactions and historically, they tend to backfire.

Time and again, the strongest market recoveries occur shortly after the steepest declines.

Step out of the market, even briefly, and you risk missing the rebound that delivers long‑term growth.

Practical Steps You Can Take

While you cannot control geopolitical events, you can make thoughtful decisions that support your financial resilience.

A few examples:

If you are taking withdrawals from your portfolio, temporarily reducing them can help the portfolio recover faster
Adjusting big spending decisions delaying a large purchase or deferring a discretionary trip can provide valuable flexibility
Avoid changing your risk profile based on headlines. Selling equities after a fall rarely improves long‑term outcomes
Avoid chasing whatever happens to be in the news (gold, defence stocks, commodities). By the time it hits the headlines, the opportunity has usually already moved

At Lexington, we don’t believe in market timing or short‑term speculation.

Your strategy is built deliberately to endure precisely these kinds of periods.

Final Thoughts

Geopolitical tension is unsettling – that’s human.

But uncertainty has always been part of investing.

Through wars, recessions, crises and shocks, global markets have continued to grow because the world continues to innovate, build, evolve and progress.

Successful investing is not about predicting the news. It is about:

building a resilient portfolio
maintaining discipline
and staying focused on your long‑term goals

Your portfolio is already designed for environments like this. And you don’t need to navigate it alone, we’re always here to help, whenever you need us. If you have any questions, please just reach out.

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