The third quarter of 2018 is over. Returns have been mixed, with the USA the standout performer.
For markets it has been an interesting nine months, with a fair slice of performance – good and bad – down to what has been happening in the USA, but what else would one expect with it being about 52% of the world market cap. The country has experienced three hikes in interest rates (with another still earmarked for December). On this side of the Atlantic, the Brexit process has rumbled on with no clear end yet in sight, while the Eurozone ended September with a renewed round of jitters about the financial profligacy of Italy’s populist government.
Looking more broadly, the nine-month out turns are shown below:
29/12/2017 |
28/09/2018 |
YTD Change |
|
FTSE 100 |
7,687.77 |
7,510.2 |
-2.31% |
FTSE 250 |
20,726.26 |
20,307.04 |
-2.02% |
FTSE 350 Higher Yield |
3,938.35 |
3,790.40 |
-3.76% |
FTSE 350 Lower Yield |
4,212.72 |
4,187.71 |
-0.59% |
FTSE All-Share |
4,221.82 |
4,127.91 |
-2.22% |
S&P 500 |
2,673.61 |
2,913.98 |
8.99% |
Euro Stoxx 50 (€) |
3,503.96 |
3,399.20 |
-2.99% |
Nikkei 225 |
22,764.94 |
24,120.04 |
5.95% |
MSCI Em Markets (£) |
1,602.28 |
1,503.51 |
-6.16% |
MSCI ACWI (£) |
709.58 |
752.18 |
6.00% |
2-yr UK Gilt yield |
0.49% |
0.88% |
|
10-yr UK Gilt yield |
1.24% |
1.46% |
|
20yr US T-bond yield |
1.89% |
2.70% |
|
10-yr US T-bond yield |
2.42% |
3.06% |
|
2-yr German Bund yield |
-0.53% |
-0.51% |
|
10-yr German Bund yield |
0.42% |
0.46% |
|
£/$ |
1.3528 |
1.3041 |
-3.60% |
£/€ |
1.1266 |
1.1227 |
-0.35% |
£/¥ |
152.3883 |
148.1209 |
-2.80% |
UK Bank base rate |
0.50% |
0.75% |
|
US Fed funds rate |
1.25%-1.50% |
2.00%-2.25% |
|
ECB base rate |
0.00% |
0.00% |
A few points to note from this table are: