During the dog days of summer, a triple dip – three melting scoops of frozen goodness perched precariously on a waffle cone – can be delicious. There are other kinds of triple dips that are a lot less welcome, though. Just look at Italy.
Last week, the Italian National Institute of Statistics released its preliminary estimate of productivity in the third largest Eurozone economy. It showed Italy’s economy contracted (again) during the second quarter of 2014. That puts Italy firmly in triple-dip territory, according to The Washington Post:
“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing Italy to join the euro. It hasn’t grown since. After its GDP fell 0.2 percent, Italy is stuck in a triple-dip recession. Yes, triple: its economy started shrinking in 2008, relapsed in 2011, and now again in 2014. Although, at this point, it’s probably more accurate to just call this a depression. After all, Italy’s economy has contracted 11 of the previous 12 quarters. It’s been enough to wipe out almost all its growth in the past 14 years.”
Much of the rest of Europe is faring somewhat better than Italy, but growth is not robust. Reuters reported Germany’s economy, the largest in Europe, is expected to show stagnant growth during the second quarter of 2014 as the crisis in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia take their toll. German exports to Russia have fallen and German business leaders have said tens of thousands of jobs may be at risk.
All eyes will be on Europe during the next few weeks as second-quarter preliminary growth numbers are released. Experts may have their fingers crossed, hoping the unprecedented package of stimulus measures announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) a couple of months ago will offset the negative effects of geopolitical tensions. However, Bloomberg opined that policy changes often take a while to make a difference. In the meantime, European economies may be vulnerable to risks like geopolitical unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East.